My system, 5 picks (CFB Week 7)

This college football season I decided to generate a system to predict college football outcomes against the spread.  I pick 5 games a week, choosing the games with spreads that deviate farthest from my predicted spread. If I see anomalies, I tend to avoid the game (BYU v. UCF, my line was 13 points off the line, but obviously BYU lost their starting QB the prior week) I use an offshore sports book as the reference odds. So far my system is 16 - 9 (64%) ATS.  Over the course of the remainder of the year and throughout next year I'll continue to tweak my system accordingly.  Of course this is for entertainment purposes only.

My picks (Week 7 - Oct 11th)

Florida International +13 over UT San Antonio (My line is UTSA -5)

North Texas +6.5 over Alabama-Birmingham (My line is North Texas -2.5)

Cincinnati +14.5 over Miami (FLA) (My line is Miami -7.5)

Old Dominion +3 over Texas-El Paso (My line is ODU -5)

UCLA +3 over Oregon  (My line is UCLA -4.5)

*UPDATE*

A brutal 1 - 4 this week...

A Sea of Blue post from the past

I posted this in December 2012, after I had a month to digest Kentucky's recent hire of Mark Stoops as their football coach.  Now that UK is 2-1 in the SEC and 4-1 overall coupled with a down year by perennial powerhouses in the SEC East, I'll share it on this blog:

Kentucky Football CAN Win the SEC East

By Daddy_Jorge  @Geo_Armstrong on Dec 29 2012, 7:40a

Honk if you've heard this one..."Kentucky Football will never win in the SEC. It is a doormat program and will finish either in 5th or 6th (or 7th) in the SEC East. Call me when basketball season starts..." I heard the same from program fans and rivals alike ad nauseam, to the point that I began to not only accept the theory but assume it's truth as universal natural law. Then something strange occurred. While reading tweets from rival fans, I saw a < than 140 character blurb that said something to the effect of "Kentucky is a stepping-stone job, mid major type job in the SEC", and another that said "Kentucky is a graveyard for coaches". I had an epiphany...this wasn't true. I have been alive long enough to see eight football coaches at the University of Kentucky:

Fran Curci (Fired NCAA violations/Retired?)

Jerry Claibourne (Alma Mater / Retired)

Bill Curry (Left Alabama in a Contract dispute / Fired)

Hal Mumme (Unknown DII Coach previously / Fired NCAA Violations)

Guy Morriss (On Previous Staff) (Accepted Baylor Job)

Rich Brooks (Come out of retirement to help) (Retired)

Joker Phillips (OC on previous Staff / Fired)

Mark Stoops (Hot young Assistant / Just Hired)

All of those coaches either were rules violators, near the end of their coaching careers ("hasbeens"), unknowns, or products of previous staffs and/or staring down the barrel of NCAA sanctions. There were no "stepping stones", and those that found themselves in the "graveyard" either came with one foot already there or demonstrated severely lacking coaching skills and/or innovation to get them there. Interestingly Mark Stoops is the first hire of my lifetime that is the hot commodity assistant. future star coach.

The question is now, "Can he win the SEC championship?" I tend to think so...

I am not going to pretend that even casual UK football fans haven't considered the following, but this exercise really helped me see how UK in not as far from SEC relevancy and proficiency as main stream and many local media outlets would have you believe.

Let's remember back to October 13th, 2007...

"It proved we're a team that obviously earns a lot more respect now," (Andre) Woodson said after No. 17 Kentucky upset the Tigers 43-37 in triple overtime Saturday. "We've come a long way from being a doormat in the SEC to competing with the best teams in the SEC and getting some wins."

With this win Kentucky improved to 6-1 overall and 2-1 in the SEC. The next week UK lost to Florida, a game ESPN Gameday chose for its weekly College Football Show. Now let's get a little creative. Kentucky finished the season losing 3 of the final four games including a loss to unranked (and under manned) Mississippi State as well as 4 overtime thriller to Tennessee. I contend that these games, given small, non-talent related changes in circumstances (coaching decisions, schemes, etc.), could have conceivably swung in Kentucky's favor. This changes Kentucky's regular season record to 9-3 (5-3 SEC) good for a tie for second place in the SEC East.

2008 Kentucky finished the regular season 6-6 (2-6 SEC), a season in which conceivably UK could've defeated Georgia at home (Cobb intercepted on the 13 yard line late only down by 4), and Vanderbilt (upset). This reversal of fortune elevates Kentucky to 8-4 (4-4 SEC) regular season and into a tie for third in the east.

2009 Kentucky finished the regular season 7-5 (3-5 SEC). Only two losses, Alabama (38-20) and Florida (41-7), were conceivably out of range. The other losses included the likes of South Carolina (2 points), Mississippi State (a touchdown), and Tennessee (6 points). Six SEC wins in 2009 would have garnered a outright second place finish in the East and would have been 3rd best record in the entire conference.

2010 (Joker's first year) is where it gets interesting. Kentucky finished the regular season 2-6 in the SEC, however 3 of those losses were within a touchdown including a thrilling 3 point come-from-far-behind loss to eventual national champion Auburn. For discussion sake, let's assume UK wins these three games against Auburn and the Mississippi Schools. 5-3 in the SEC East in 2010 is a tie for first with South Carolina, which Kentucky beat head to head. This would've been Kentucky's first ever trip to the SEC Championship game.

Now many can argue, especially with losses in mediocre bowls games in 2009 and 2010, that Auburn would have beaten UK by 40 on the national SEC Championship stage, or that higher profile bowl matchups could've exposed Kentucky in its talent deficiencies. However, one could also argue that increased exposure (even in a loss) would go a long way in capturing the 3 to 5 four star recruits each year that will eventually lead to sustained football success.

Speaking of 3 to 5 four star recruits. I spent yesterday evening perusing recruiting websites and it appears even in an extremely abbreviated recruiting season for Stoops's Troops, those 4 star guys are starting to take notice. We all anxiously await the results of a couple of full recruiting seasons for this staff. I can't help but hope and truly believe we are on the cusp of something dynamic and potentially very special for UK football.

Going forward Kentucky should be able to compete on a regular basis with Missouri, Vanderbilt and Tennessee, Additionally if the SEC West draw includes the Mississippi Schools or Arkansas/Auburn in a down year, Kentucky can compete for a Championship. Throw in the yearly upset we became somewhat accustomed to in the Rich Brooks era who knows what can happen. Despite the struggles of the past couple of years, UK football is not the perenial downtrodden program as suggeted by our rivals.

Can we hurry up and get through this basketball season already and get to some spring football?

http://www.aseaofblue.com/2012/12/29/3734256/kentucky-football-can-win-the-sec-east

Peterson and Public Opinion

Image from www.foxsports.com

Under no circumstances is it acceptable to cause intentional physical harm to a child. I grew up in a time when "Go get a switch" or "Where is my belt" foreshadowed an imminent physical behavioral correction.  Multiple generations my age (37) and older accurately state "I received spankings and I turned out just fine, thank you". In 6th grade (Jefferson County (Kentucky) Public Schools), I once received punishment in which I stood in the hallway (in public eye), held my ankles for 20 minutes, and received several paddle spanks from my science teacher. I'm not sure if it hurt or caused a mark because I aimed to be tough and not react to it. I may have even laughed to taunt the teacher. Additionally, many times my parenting skills draw heavily on my experience with my perception of my parents' parenting skills. I parent exactly like my parents at times and exactly opposite other times. With that said, I have physically punished my daughter exactly once. As a toddler, I took her out of her car seat and as I stood her up on the pavement next to my car, she made a b-line for the street.  I caught her in plenty of time and I gave her a mild to moderate open-handed swipe on her diapered hind end. The physical pain didn't make her flinch, the emotion pain of the correction made her cry. I have never laid a corrective or punitive hand on my daughter since. This is my choice. This was not my experience as a child but is my choice as a parent. 

The Minnesota Vikings decided to place fallen franchise figurehead, Adrian Peterson on an exempt inactive list until his recent child abuse charges are resolved.  Peterson was indicted for child abuse charges in Texas after reports and photos surfaced of his 4 year old child's injuries as a result of being spanked with a tree switch, admittedly at the hands of Peterson. The story originally broke on Saturday, 9/13, he was inactive for the game on Sunday and was reinstated early this week. Cue public outrage...The general public opinion is that Peterson's behavior calls for a much more lengthy ban, especially considering the recent horrifying video displaying a domestically violent vicious hit by another NFL figurehead, Ray Rice against his then fiance. The governor of Minnesota spoke out against the Vikings organization and its handling of the scandal. Mass public opinion lashed out against the Vikings. Finally, after at least two sponsors spoke out against the organization (loss sponsorship revenue), the Vikings decided to take more action against Peterson.

Here is my rub.  I agree Peterson and Rice deserve punishment for their actions.  Child and/or domestic violence are two of the most heinous forms of violence. The physical and emotional damage to the victims last a long time, maybe a lifetime. However, I am concerned by the initial response of the league and team(s) as being one of minimal punishment, then public backlash allows the disciplinarians to review, recant, and re-punish. While they may get the punishment right in the end, the method is alarming and in my opinion is unethical. I understand the NFL/Vikings as employers and organizations can set their own rules, but an obvious double jeopardy as a result of public outcry and threats show an incredible lack of integrity for the organization and create an alarming precedent that could eventually be allowed to grow outside the realm of the private organization. If the US Government feels compelled to force private organizations to provide benefits that are in direct conflict with the private organizations' core beliefs, how long before the government tries to allow for double jeopardy when some horrifying piece of evidence surfaces that doesn't change the guilt of the previously admitted perpetrator, but further enhances the disgust of the public.  How long before a convict admits guilt,  is punished by his peers and then is re-punished because some judge or official decided to withhold funds for the locale because the punishment was deemed unjust. A business leader in my company always says, "You get what you tolerate." If we tolerate and proliferate courts of public opinion and fluid punishments based on those opinions, slowly those courts and punishments will become a part and be accepted as a part of our lives. Considering the force with which a story will develop and metastasize through social media, the current state of affairs suggest the court of public opinion will become larger, more diverse, and quicker to judgment.

The NFL and the Minnesota Vikings are in full damage control mode. The fear of loss of revenue is causing these organizations to make error corrections on their doling out of punishments.  However, the league/organization needs to admit its mistake and correct the precedent established with the original judgments by fixing it in the future, not by destroying the erroneously implied rights already established with the accused.  The league got it wrong in the beginning, Rice and Peterson shouldn't pay the price for the league's wrong.  The league and the organization should pay the price.

UPDATE- Adrian Peterson agrees with the Vikings's judgment of addition to the exempt list.  His agents believes it will allow Peterson to appropriately address the situation and he believes it is the best possible way to resolve.  I still contend this should be the course of action before the public outcry, not as a result of it. 

Could next year be the year?

Arrieta K's 13 IN CG Victory Arrieta K's 13 IN CG Victory -via SportsCenter

Cubs v. Reds 9/16/2014

As a devoted Cubs fan, I've consistently had the familiar mantra, "Wait 'til next year". As a matter of fact, the Cubs, Jets and UK Football Wildcats have provided a lifetime of "next years". However, Theo (Epstein) has the Cubs organization with a very unfamiliar war chest; momemtum, an abundance of young talents and a wallet to go get some pennant worthy pitching. While we may remain one year away, the buzz feels like we could truly get our coveted "Next Year", next year.

First Post

I'm back...This is my second concerted effort to maintain a blog.  I get caught up in the grandiose idea of having a blog that will grow to an immensely popular proportion, however, I recognize I need to perfect the craft first. Walk before I run right? The intent of this blog is to write what I feel and post my reactions to various events.  I recognize I'll start basic and slow, I hope to learn, and gain comfort.  I would eventually like to integrate any posts or comments I publish on SB Nation, and or Cats Illustrated. While this blog will probably be heavy on sports to start (it's what I am best at writing about), I intend to take it much further. Here is my list of probable topics from time to time:

UK Football

                Current games

                Upcoming Games

                Recruiting

                Strategy

UK Basketball

                Current games

                Upcoming Games

                Recruiting

                Strategy

UL Football

                Current games

                Upcoming Games

                Recruiting

                Strategy

UL Basketball

                Current games

                Upcoming Games

                Recruiting

                Strategy

KY HS Sports

                Current games

                Upcoming Games

                Recruiting

                Strategy

Fantasy Football

Food- Tailgate food/What I’m cooking

Travel/Restaurants

College Football At large

What I’m watching:

Music

Movies

TV Series

My Career ( Financial Analyst)

Business topics,

Current Events

My relationships

                My Daughter

                My Fiancé

                My Family

Hopefully you'll want to keep reading, but my mission is to write for me... See you soon.